Well Super Tuesday II has come and gone with not quite the fan fare of the first. Most predictions held with Hillary pulling out two vital wins in Texas and Ohio, but the real story is slightly below the surface of the the win column.
#1 McCain is still struggling to convince Republican voters that he’s their man. Take a look at how Huckabee faired in the big states: 30% in Ohio and almost 40% in Texas. That does bode well for the candidate that “locked up” the nomination weeks ago. While McCain may be gaining the independents he seems to be losing the at least a third of his base. And without his base its unlikely that he will have enough votes to unseat either Dem. Think it’s just Huckabee’s charm? Look closer. Romni, Thompson and Giuliani all pulled statistically significant numbers (>1%), some as high as 4%. These candidates are not only out of the race but all have endorsed McCain. Which would mean that McCain’s negatives are high enough to only pale in comparison to Hillary’s.
#2 The Primary structure is messed up. The Dem side is worse but both sides are bad. Can someone explain to me the significance of Ohio? Don’t get me wrong it’s a great normal state, but WHY does everyone care about it? Or more accurately, why does it get a disproportional number of delegates? Let’s look at the numbers: Texas population: 22.8M delegates: 39 dems, 69 repubs. Ohio population: 11.4M delegates: 128 dems, 79 repubs. (Tennessee population: 6M delegates: 66 dems, 46 repubs.) Didn’t we outlaw the concept that some people’s votes only count 2/3 or 3/4 of others? -shrug-