With Thompson Gone, Conservatives Cheer Obama

It seems strange at first, but it’s true. Now that Fred Thompson has left the race, most conservatives are now cheering for Barack Obama – but not for why you think.

Let’s look back to understand this twist. Conservatives got genuinely excited twice in this campaign season. The first time was back last summer, when Thompson spoke out a conservative message eloquently and with new media. This was a breath of fresh air that the Republican party needed. A true small government conservative that could explain conservatism in a way that made sense average Americans. AND he was able to tap into the new media – something Democrats have been doing much better than Republicans.

Conservatives waited with bated breath for their candidate. But after perhaps too much delay, Thompson entered the race with a whimper instead of a sizzle. Fred finally seemed to find his footing a few days before the South Carolina primary, coming out swinging in a debate a several speeches. Again conservatives got excited, but again it ended up being too little too late.

So now they wait and cheer for Obama to come and rescue them. Why? Because a race against Obama would require conservatism to win. A race against Hillary would require something completely different: Running against the Clintons, most of your time is spent fighting and trying to say ahead of the Clinton Machine. (Just look at the Hillary Obama race for proof of this). And a Republican candidate would try to win by focusing on Hillary’s negatives (which are quite high).

Running against Obama you can’t simply get people to vote against him – he’s too likeable. And running liberalism lite against liberalism is a fools errand. Even if you capture the middle, you will lose your base and therefore the election. If Hillary gets the nomination it will be a fight between political machinery. If Obama wins it can be a fight of policies and ideas. And conservatism wins in the arena of ideas – when it actually gets a chance to be considered. So for the third time conservatives wait – and hope for a chance let conservative ideas be on the table.

Government Bans Light Bulbs, Eyes Thermostats

Say good bye to the incandescent light bulb. Congress has banned them staring in 2012. Congress defends this blatant attack on consumer choice and the home is castle concept by sighting energy savings. Everyone talks about how much money and power everyone will save. Wrong!

  • Save Money? Nope. You’ll spend it all on the more expensive bulbs. So instead of a check to the utility it goes to the lighting industry. Same mothballs in the wallet for the consumer.
  • Save Power? Nope. If the fuel efficiency of cars is any indication, no power will be saved. Consumers will simply care less about turning off their lights. As cars have gotten better mpg, American’s simply drive more. The economic impact not some love of the planet is what drives these things. If making sure you turn off your lights only impacts your power bill $5 instead of $50… no one will bother. Increasing the power consumption back to the pre-meddling point. Sorry congress, market forces don’t change with your wims.

Sadly, when I first heard about this a few weeks ago, I asked “What’s next? Are they going to make it illegal to set my thermostat to low?” Little did I know just how quickly I would be proven right. California is trying to pass a bill to require radio controlled thermostats for “peak times” and “emergencies”. So what happens when California declares a “global warming emergency”? Wal-mart will sell out of window AC units that day. Though I probably shouldn’t point that out, or those will be banned before the emergency declaration.

UPDATE: Indications are that too many voters have taken noticed of this incantation of the bill. So expect a repeat of the immigration strategy – table the issue and then bring it back in a few months buried deeper in another bill.

Iowa Helps Some, Hurts Others

To see the impact that Iowans had we need to recap the polls and the standings. Going into the Hawkeye Cauci the latest polls had candidates here:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll
Obama 31%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 24%

Mike Huckabee 31%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson, John McCain and Ron Paul tied at ~10%

Here’s where they finished:

Iowa Results
Obama 38%
John Edwards 30%
Hillary Clinton 29%

Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson and John McCain tied at 13%
Ron Paul 10%
(Giuliani didn’t campaign in Iowa so no one was surprised at his 3%)

Now, Iowa is important not because of any significance in the actual number of delegates it will send on, but for two separate perceptions it creates. The first is a sort of an expectations check. Polls are never right because “likely voters” and actual voters are two different things. (Consider whom is usually at home with nothing else to do but talk to pollsters.) The second is the much important momentum. Americans like winners and like being in their camp. Giuliani protected his national momentum by skipping a state where he would do poorly.

Now the winners and losers. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have officially left the race after failing to break the 1% mark. Americans may love underdogs but we hate losers. Thankfully, after a year of campaigning we are quickly headed towards a field small enough to fit on one debate stage.

Fred Thompson on the other hand got a boost with a higher than expected 3rd place finish. Thompson only had limited campaign coverage of Iowa, so a respectable showing bodes well for his stronger southern states.

Obama finished stronger than expected and pulled 9 points ahead of the “inevitable” candidate. Political pundants had said a 10+ point lead would be fatal to Hillary. So not quite the death blow but certainly the young Senator is starting to look like an actual challenge.

Iowa was not good for the Clinton camp. While not a fatal blow, it joins an ever growing list of mis-steps and stumbles by Hillary in a bid that few would have questioned a year ago. That’s the biggest problem with inevitability for the Clinton campaign: it raises expectations. If you don’t win consistently you could suddenly find yourself very alone. Not that it’s for lack of trying: the campaign has been through a dozen slogan messages, tried to trip up Obama with indirect character attacks, done their best to avoid any unscripted press time. But they’ve failed to find real traction as Obama grows stronger and Hillary slides ever closer to the tipping point.

Call it racism, sexism or just great hair, but Edwards -while largely unaffected by Iowa- proved that he is still a top tier candidate in a race that could shake up considerably in the next month.

Finally, Mike Huckabee. Mike won big but no one is really sure what that means. Huckabee’s dramatic surge is historically unprecedented and therefore largely a question mark. Supporters believe his momentum will carry him on, while everyone else is expecting a more “flash in the pan” result. I personally believe he will last a lot longer than most will give him credit for. Mike Huckabee is an excellent politician in a race with many who are -well- not. His Bill Clintonesque Populist appeal is much stronger than most realize, but his base will in the end abandon him. Much of his surge is from the religious right, whom really know little about him. As the spot light and campaign trail reveal more of the man and his record, Mike will discover that it takes more than being an ordained minister to win the Presidency.

Weekend In Vegas

Ah Vegas, always something going on. On a trip to see the versatile Billy Joel we ran in my boy, Anthony Anderson. He was there doing a poker tournament for BET. Nelly and that guy from ER attended as well. It should air early 08.

While we were there Planet Hollywood christened it’s new casino with all the PH A listers attending. We didn’t have a chance to see Bruce and others due to the concert, but we did get a chance to meet Wyland at his gallery shortly before the show. Wyland of course is the big name in oceanic art (you know someone’s big when they only need one name ;). Look for his next big piece will be a huge mural for the Olympic Games in China.

While Vegas is fun, the time share people are getting a little pushy. My next visit, I’m planning on wearing a custom T that says “No, I don’t want you damn time share!”. We’ll have to wait and see how effective that is…

UPDATE: oops this accidentally got posted under Nov 08 instead of 07… I wondered why it wasn’t showing up…