In case you haven’t figured it out from the utter lack of coverage, the US Military has been kicking butt in Iraq. The surge help our forces reach that critical mass of manpower. Coupled with the additional time, defections, and other gains – the point spread on this has shifted considerably in the last 6 months. The underdog Al-Qaeda now just looks like a dog and a rather small one at that.

Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces an “extraordinary crisis”. Last year’s mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the US military “created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight”. The terrorist group’s security structure suffered “total collapse”.

These are the words not of al-Qaeda’s enemies but of one of its own leaders in Anbar province — once the group’s stronghold. They were set down last summer in a 39-page letter seized during a US raid on an al-Qaeda base near Samarra in November.

The US military released extracts from that letter yesterday along with a second seized in another November raid that is almost as startling.

That second document is a bitter 16-page testament written last October by a local al-Qaeda leader near Balad, north of Baghdad. “I am Abu-Tariq, emir of the al-Layin and al-Mashahdah sector,” the author begins. He goes on to describe how his force of 600 shrank to fewer than 20.

“We were mistreated, cheated and betrayed by some of our brothers,” he says. “Those people were nothing but hypocrites, liars and traitors and were waiting for the right moment to switch sides with whoever pays them most.”

Assuming the two documents are authentic — and the US military insists that they are — they provide a rare insight into an organisation thrown into turmoil by the rise of the Awakening movement. More than 80,000 Sunnis have joined the tribal groups of “concerned local citizens” [CLCs] that have helped to eject al-Qaeda from swaths of western and northern Iraq, including much of Baghdad. – Al-Qaeda leaders admit: ‘We are in crisis. There is panic and fear’

Most Democrats have wisely dropped the war issue and simply hope no one really notices, but Speaker Pelosi always comes through when you need her. The following was an exchange on Late Edition on Sunday:

Wolf Blitzer: “You’re not worried all the gains that have been achieved over the past year in Iraq might be lost?”

Speaker Pelosi: “There haven’t been gains, Wolf. The gains have not produced the desired effect, which is the reconciliation of Iraq. This is a failure. This is a failure! The troops have succeeded. God bless them. We owe them the greatest debt of gratitude, the sacrifice, their patriotism, and for their courage, and to their families as well. This is a — a disaster, and we cannot perpetuate it. We have to make decisions. And this is — the loss of life of nearly 4,000 of our troops, an average of 800 a year, tens of thousands injured; some of them permanently, blind, amputations.”

Madame Speaker runs the gamut in a short reply. 1) No Gains 2) Ok there were gains, but they haven’t produced the desired effect. (failure) 3) Failure, Failure! 4) The troops have succeeded. 5) If you’re not horrified that this 5 year war has killed as many Americans as auto accidents did last month, there have also been injuries over there. Injuries (some of the permanent!) in war! Disaster.

Between Super Tuesday and Romney stepping out, John McCain has all but locked up the Republican Nomination. And in much of the country there was weeping and nashing of teeth. In the past few days, I have spoken with countless Republicans that are struggling with which is stronger: their love of the party or their disgust with the Maverick.

McCain has been a liberal media darling for a variety of reasons: 1) historically he has tried his best to please the media (regardless of voter preferences) 2) the media sees him as a beatable candidate 3) if he some reason he did win, he’s liberal enough to be palatable as a Republican president. But NOW that the nomination has been sewn up for McCain the Democratic mouthpieces can focus on promoting Obama Mania.

WASHINGTON (AP) — While Republican John McCain is urging his conservative critics to rally around his presidential campaign, there is a lot of water under that bridge.

Here are the top 10 reasons some conservatives dislike the Arizona senator:

1. Campaign finance reform. McCain tried to limit the role of money in politics with measures that, critics say, stomp on the constitutional right to free speech.

2. Immigration. McCain has been a vocal supporter of a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, although he now says he understands the border between the U.S. and Mexico must be sealed first.

3. Tax cuts. McCain twice voted against President Bush’s tax cuts, saying in 2001 they helped the wealthy at the expense of the middle class and in 2003 that there should be no tax relief until the cost of the Iraq war was known. But he now wants to extend the tax cuts.

4. Gay Marriage. McCain refuses to support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

5. Stem cell research. McCain would relax restrictions on federal dollars for embryonic stem cell research, which critics consider tantamount to abortion.

6. Global warming. Among the loudest voices in Congress for aggressive action against global warming and a frequent critic of the Bush administration on the issue.

7. “Gang of 14” member. One of seven Republicans and seven Democrats who averted a Senate showdown over whether filibusters could be used against Bush judicial nominees.

8. Kerry veep. McCain was approached by the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, about being his running mate. McCain talked with Kerry but rejected the offer.

9. Works with Democrats. See all of the above.

10. Belligerence. McCain can be acerbic toward his critics, such as when he labeled televangelists Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson “agents of intolerance.” He reconciled with Falwell in 2006. Conservative James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, said in a statement on the morning of the Super Tuesday primaries that he would not vote for McCain, citing among other things his “legendary temper” and that he “often uses foul and obscene language.” (AP: Main Reasons Conservatives Oppose McCain)

When someone puts out a “top 10 reason to hate you” piece, the honeymoon is officially over.

Sunday, the Giants completed the ultimate Cinderella Story: a wild card team, not only makes it to the superbowl, but prevents what would have been only the 2nd perfect season in NFL history. And it was a great game right down to the last minute score to win the game. This was one of the rare moments where a ARO staffer could be called un-patriotic…

But seriously, as the big day in Primaries ramps up this morning – could the underdog spirit spillover from Sunday? Certainly Obama’s camp has positioned itself in this manner. And it has worked well up to this point. Meanwhile, pundits have been calling the race as McCain’s for longer than he’s actually been leading.

American’s love underdogs – that can win. It’s really about perceived critical mass going today. I would wager 20-30% of the vote today will hinge on how close people believe the race is. The closer the perception of the gap is – the more those crucial votes will go to Obama and Romney.

It seems strange at first, but it’s true. Now that Fred Thompson has left the race, most conservatives are now cheering for Barack Obama – but not for why you think.

Let’s look back to understand this twist. Conservatives got genuinely excited twice in this campaign season. The first time was back last summer, when Thompson spoke out a conservative message eloquently and with new media. This was a breath of fresh air that the Republican party needed. A true small government conservative that could explain conservatism in a way that made sense average Americans. AND he was able to tap into the new media – something Democrats have been doing much better than Republicans.

Conservatives waited with bated breath for their candidate. But after perhaps too much delay, Thompson entered the race with a whimper instead of a sizzle. Fred finally seemed to find his footing a few days before the South Carolina primary, coming out swinging in a debate a several speeches. Again conservatives got excited, but again it ended up being too little too late.

So now they wait and cheer for Obama to come and rescue them. Why? Because a race against Obama would require conservatism to win. A race against Hillary would require something completely different: Running against the Clintons, most of your time is spent fighting and trying to say ahead of the Clinton Machine. (Just look at the Hillary Obama race for proof of this). And a Republican candidate would try to win by focusing on Hillary’s negatives (which are quite high).

Running against Obama you can’t simply get people to vote against him – he’s too likeable. And running liberalism lite against liberalism is a fools errand. Even if you capture the middle, you will lose your base and therefore the election. If Hillary gets the nomination it will be a fight between political machinery. If Obama wins it can be a fight of policies and ideas. And conservatism wins in the arena of ideas – when it actually gets a chance to be considered. So for the third time conservatives wait – and hope for a chance let conservative ideas be on the table.